How to assess winning or losing a war: case study Gaza 2008 and Lebanon 2006

{Olmert: “Israel” attained its goals in Gaza!
A special thank you to the US and its allies}

How do you gain victory in a war? Military experts and other political analysts would answer if you achieve the goals and aims set out for this war. The answer is logical and objective no one can disagree with that. In order to have a set of goals you would have prepared for them and there would be a  plan to execute.

If we take both cases of Gaza and Lebanon, “Israel” had a list of objectives and it also started both wars. This is not my own opinion rather taken from Israeli newspapers and Israeli politicians themselves. In the wars the obvious objectives were to destroy Hizba’Allah and Hamas, stop the launching of any rocket into “Israel” and end any type of objection or resistance in the Middle East over US and Israeli policies. On average the wars were planned about six months before they were executed. So it is fair to say “Israel” is the instigator of these wars regardless of any excuses used to begin them because they were pre-planned.

At the end of these two wars no one can dispute the enormous amount of destruction caused by the Israeli army on many villages and areas in both Gaza and Lebanon. Buildings, houses, hospitals, mosques, churches, schools were leveled to the ground by the use of bunker busters (GBU-40), cluster bombs, large tank and warship shells, depleted uranium, white phosphorus, and DIME. No cost can be put on civilian suffering, 1315 in Gaza and counting, and about 1200 martyrs in Lebanon without including the thousands of wounded many with life changing effects like amputations. There were also deaths and destruction in “Israel” due to the rocket launching and fighting with the resistance groups. I’m mentioning these accounts because being victorious in war is assessed regardless of destruction and deaths. You might ask why is so? The reason is due to the consequences that result from the war whether militarily, politically and strategically. If you set goals for the war and attain them then you would have won the war; in addition if the consequences of the war are largely in your favor and your enemy does not reverse the list of goals you put.

Let us take the 2006 war, Hizba’Allah was not destroyed, its launching capabilities stood to the last day of the war and by the admittance of Israeli security personnel the group is stronger now than it was before the war. The main two goals of the war were not reached and there was a more favorable consequence to Hizba’Allah than “Israel”. Moreover, “Israel” lost it deterrence power it relies on to cause fear in its enemies. The Israeli Winograd report revealed these points and without a doubt that the Israelis failed at the war to say the least in all accounts.

The Israelis claimed they learned lessons from the 2006 war and the Winograd report before they launched their war on Gaza. Again the same goals were set for Hamas and other resistance groups in Gaza even if they were not made very clear in the first few days. The Palestinian groups in Gaza did not have the same type of weapons Hizba’Allah used against the Israelis especially during the ground offensive. It is not a point of argument to say Hizba’Allah has more capabilities than Hamas due to the nature of the land and opportunities to get weapons. Even with that fact the Israeli army did not achieve its objectives. On the political level Hamas still controls Gaza and the Palestinians there are still with them, militarily the resistance groups were not crushed and launched rockets even after the Israelis announced a ceasefire, and strategically “Israel” could not get rid of a small group of fighters in a tiny patch of land despite the huge amount of fire power and troops it used in the war. The resistance groups have more support now especially in the Arab and Muslim world while the rest of the world sees “Israel” as a ferocious beast who only knows how to kills civilians, commit genocide, and try to destroy the livelihood of Palestinian people.

Some people might find the talk of a victory of these groups after the costs in life and infrastructure not reaslistic but it does not matter how much lives or buildings you lose for that is the price of freedom. In the words of Khaled Mis’haal today in his victory speech people remember De Gaulle and his resistance against the Nazis and not the traitorous Vichy government who back then gave up France in the name of preserving buildings and lives. The Israelis lost their deterrent power no one fears them anymore and they couldn’t even win over a small group of resistance fighters with barely any weapons.

{What did “Israel” gain from its waroin Gaza…!!!
Using illegal weapons, killing children, increasing hate towards “Israel”, terrorists, the new Nazis, toying with Arab rulers, not respecting international laws, killing innocent civilians, destroying the peace process, and war crimes.}

23 proofs of Israel’s defeat in the 23-day war

1- From the military perspective, “the most powerful” army in the Middle East which faced only a militia group hardly advanced into the Gaza Strip’s urban areas. It faced fierce resistance and realized that the price of any military victory would be too high.

2- At the beginning of the operation, Israel announced that the operation was aimed at preventing rocket attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian groups against Israeli towns. Palestinians, however, continued striking Israeli targets, even in the last hours of the war.

3- Hamas extended the range of its rockets and managed to hit targets as far away as 60 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. In fact, the Israeli operation helped Hamas boost its military might.

4- In the course of killing civilians, the Israeli regime set up a factory for producing living time bombs which will jeopardize the security situation for Israel. Civilian casualties in any conflict always radicalize members of bereaved families. Following the massacre of civilians in Gaza, it is more likely that those Palestinians who adopted a nonviolent approach to resist the Israeli occupation, will now turn to military tactics. Keep in mind that many of them have nothing to lose.

5- Israel hastily signed an agreement with the US-a third party which was not directly involved in the war-to prevent “the arm smuggling” into the Gaza Strip. The deal envisaged measures to prevent Hamas from rearming, going so far as to for example seek US assistance in policing sea routes to Gaza and providing Egypt with the equipment to destroy smuggling tunnels along its border with the costal sliver. This was however nothing but a propaganda tactic to persuade public opinion that the war had some achievements. Shin Bet’s announcement that Hamas will be able to rearm within a few months supports this notion. The Israeli media has also revealed that Washington has given no guarantees to Tel Aviv that Hamas would not be rearmed.

6- Hamas has vowed to restore its arsenals, dealing a blow to Israeli officials who claim that the movement has been “punished” and it knows that it cannot continue its armed campaign against Israel.

7- No high-ranking Hamas leader, except Said Siyam, was killed in the Israeli operation. In fact, it is estimated that out of more than thousands of victims of the Israeli offensive, only 95 people were Hamas members and most of them were killed on the first day of the attack when Hamas was caught off guard due to alleged betrayal of some Arab states.

8- Israel’s defeat by a small group has shattered the image of an invincible army that overpowered the army of several Arab nations in 1967. It would not be surprising if Israel’s arch foes were encouraged to settle their old score with the regime after its recent defeat. No matter what you have in your arsenals, you are considered the loser if you have been defeated in your enemy’s mind. Israel seems to have entered the spiral of decline.

9- From the political perspective, Israel’s situation is not any better than the one in the military arena. For the first time, two Israeli ambassadors were expelled, a big diplomatic humiliation for Tel Aviv.

10- The indiscriminate killing of civilians including women and children drew international condemnation to the point that the US, which always vetoes UN Security Council resolutions against Israel, was neutralized and gave in to mounting international pressure when the council voted on a binding resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire.

11- Israel’s strategy of decreasing Hamas’s popularity through putting pressure on the Gazans has obviously backfired. The Islamic movement emerged more popular than ever before after the war, because any group or person who deals a blow to Israel will be praised as a hero in the eyes of Arab nations. We witnessed the phenomenon during the 33-day war which made Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah the most popular Arab leader in the Islamic world.

12- Following the Gaza war, Mahmoud Abbas’s political life came to an end. Now, Abbas who was reportedly preparing himself for returning to Gaza after the Hamas government was toppled, has to desperately beg to political brokers to find a place for him in the political future of Palestine. If Abbas loses in the Palestinian Authority general elections – a strong possibility given the situation after the Gaza war- Israel will lose its partner for peace talks.

13- Kadima’s hopes for victory in the upcoming elections have been dashed. In other words, right-wing parties like the Likud and people like Israel Beitenu’s and Shas’s hawks will come to power, fanatics who do not even believe in peace. Israel should brace itself for days during which there would be no hope for a political solution to the current conflict.

14- The Gaza war managed another sort of uncalled for achievement for Israel: it united all Muslims and anti-Israeli parties across the world! The world has never witnessed such massive anti-Israeli rallies.

15- Hamas has set a good example for others. A small group managed to defeat the most powerful army in the Middle East. It would not be surprising if someday, we see Israel struggling to survive in a battle with a host of small or big groups and organizations which adopt military resistance as their approach.

16- The Israelis have realized that their leaders are unable to protect them; there is no safe place inside the occupied territories. It means that Israel’s worst nightmare is coming true: a dramatic rise in the rate of negative immigration followed by major demographical impacts. It could shake the foundation of the Israeli regime through changing the Jewish people to a minority group in occupied Palestine. The apprehensions about this issue have so far prompted the regime to deny Palestinian refugees the right to return to their land.

17- After the war, the world is recognizing Hamas as a main player whose role can no longer be ignored and it cannot be excluded from any political process in the Middle East.

18- Prime Minister Ismail Haniya called the war “Forqan”, a Quranic word meaning what separates good and evil. The outcome of the war weakened those Arab states who had adopted a pro-Israeli stance. On the other hand, it also highlighted the significance of the role of pro-resistance countries including Iran and Syria. Therefore, the balance of power has changed with regards to Israel’s interests.

19- Kadima leaders made a fool of themselves and showed that they lack the qualifications required to lead the regime. Kadima, which was set up by former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to end the regime’s political deadlock, committed a political suicide by attacking Gaza.

20- The war also weakened the political base of those leaders of Islamic countries who are close to Israel. They have to face their people. The process has already started as we have witnessed demonstrations in some countries in which political or social protests are rare.

21- Despite nonstop bombing of the Gaza Strip by unconventional weapons, Gazans kept their high morale, a fact reported by Western journalists. There were no long queues of people at border crossings wanting to flee to a safe place. Inside Israeli towns, scores of people were treated for “shock” everyday. In other words, Israel has also lost the psychological war.

22- The war unfortunately fueled anti-Semitic sentiments across the world. Although attacks on Jews or their property under any pretext are certainly condemned, the fact indicates that Israel, despite paying lip service to the world Jewry, never considers the interests of the Jewish. Tel Aviv even turned down a request by 11 prominent leaders of the British Jewish community who asked the regime to stop its offensive for the sake of their security.

23- There are and will be groups which will open legal cases against Israel in international courts for its war crimes in Gaza. If Hamas had been destroyed, Israeli leaders might have been able to claim that it had been worth paying such a heavy price. But without achieving anything , how can they justify their acts which have drawn a wave of international condemnation?

The Gaza war has certainly changed the status quo against Israel. History seems to repeat itself; the situation is the same as that of the days after the end of the 33-Day War except for one thing: this time, the regime has no excuse to justify its defeat; there was no inexperienced defense minister leading the war.

The Gaza war dealt the last blow to the Israeli regime and its end result is the start of a battle within the regime which will put its very existence at risk.

Those who make a mistake once may be considered as inexperienced but those who repeat their mistakes are certainly judged as being “incompetent and insane”. Shall we expect another Winograd report?

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